EX-99.1 2 a04-4917_1ex99d1.htm EX-99.1

Exhibit 99.1

 

 

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[LOGO]

 

Mercer International Inc.

 

(Nasdaq:  MERCS)

(TSE:  MRI.U)

 



 

Safe Harbour Statement

 

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a “safe harbor” for forward-looking statements.  Certain information included in this presentation contains statements that are forward-looking, such as statements relating to results of operations and financial condition and business development activities, as well as capital spending and financing sources.  Such forward-looking information involves important risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect anticipated results in the future and, accordingly, such results may differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Mercer.  For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, review Mercer’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

March 31, 2004

 

2



 

Mercer International - Investment Merits

 

                  Low Cost NBSK Producer with World Class Assets

 

                  Ideal Geographic Location Creates Unique Market Dynamics

                  Strategically Positioned Relative to Emerging Markets

                  Access to Stable, Low-Cost Fiber Sources

 

                  Significant Leverage to Pulp Cycle

                  Rapid Organic Growth

                  Long-Term, Low-Cost Debt Financing in Place

 

3



 

Corporate History and Facilities

 

[CHART]

 

4



 

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

 



 

Global Market Pulp

 

Global Pulp Demand by Grade

 

[CHART]

 

 

Global NBSK Pulp Demand

 

[CHART]

 

                  Pulp Market at Approximately 44 Million Tonnes

                  Total Pulp Demand Growth Averaging Approximately 3% Per Year

                  28% is NBSK (Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft)

 

6



 

Hardwood vs. Softwood

 

                  Hardwood

                  Continuing Significant Growth in Hardwood Capacity

 

                  Softwood

                  Minimal Growth in Softwood Capacity

                  Easy Substitution has been Completed

                  Sizable Capital Investments Required to Further Reduce Softwood Requirements in Value Added Paper

 

 

Market pulp prices and price forecasts 1994-2008 by quarter

(US$ per tonne, CIF Northern Europe, current prices)

 

[CHART]

 

Bleached pulp demand

 

[CHART]

 

Source:  NLK Associates

 

7



 

Hardwood vs. Softwood

 

Confirmed bleached pulp capacity
Bleached pulp (‘000 tonnes)

 

 

 

2003

 

2004

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

Average growth
2003-2008

 

Market pulp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Softwood kraft

 

20,371

 

20,830

 

21,184

 

21,377

 

21,539

 

21,554

 

1.5

%

Hardwood kraft

 

23,693

 

24,857

 

26,536

 

27,616

 

27,977

 

28,038

 

4.8

%

Sulphite

 

1,624

 

1,624

 

1,617

 

1,620

 

1,620

 

1,620

 

0.2

%

BCTMP

 

2,484

 

2,534

 

2,629

 

2,787

 

2,843

 

2,854

 

3.9

%

DIP

 

2,420

 

2,467

 

2,471

 

2,471

 

2,471

 

2,471

 

1.2

%

Total

 

50,592

 

52,312

 

54,437

 

55,871

 

56,450

 

56,537

 

 

 

 

 

4.5

%

3.4

%

4.1

%

2.6

%

1.0

%

0.2

%

3.1

%

 

8



 

Market Pulp Trade Flows

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

                  Europe is a Significant Pulp Importer

                  Best Markets: Germany, Italy

 

9



 

Pulp Pricing Cycles

 

[CHART]

 

                  Steady Price Improvements Throughout 2003 with an Optimistic Outlook for 2004 and 2005

 

10



 

Global Demand Growth

 

Global Demand Growth for Paper and Board by Region

 

[CHART]

 

                  Global Demand Growth Forecast at 3%

                  2000-2015 Demand Growth in Eastern Europe Almost Twice Global Average

                  Consumption Exceeds Production in Eastern European Accession Countries

                  Per Capita Consumption is Currently Lower than Western European Countries - but Growth Rate is Expected to be Faster

                  Significant Investments in Paper Making Capacity in China

 

Source: Jaakko Pöyry, February 2004

 

11



 

BUSINESS DETAILS

 



 

Mercer - A Market Leader in NBSK Production

 

Rosenthal and Stendal

 

 

 

Total Tonnes (NBSK)

 

852,000

 

Total Investment (millions)

 

 

 

Grants

 

375

 

Project Debt at Completion

 

 820

 

Total Construction and Conversion Costs

 

1,176

 

Number of Employees

 

1,090

 

Annual Wood Consumption (millions)

 

 

 

Roundwood

 

2.5m3

 

Residual Chips

 

2.0m3

 

Projected Average Mill Production Cost

 

299/tonne

*

 


* 2003 Rosenthal cash production costs of €307/tonne and Stendal engineering costs estimate of €293/tonne (steady state).

 

13



 

Rosenthal - An Unparalleled Success

 

                  In 1999, Conversion of Rosenthal Mill to Kraft Pulp Production Created Unique Asset

      Approximately €361 Million Invested (€101 million from grants)

      Fastest Ever Start-up of an NBSK Facility

      Capacity Increased From 160,000 Tonnes to 300,000 Tonnes

 

                  Strong Cost Position (€307/tonne*)

      Lowest Quartile From a Global Delivered Cost Perspective

 

[GRAPHIC]

 


* Cash production costs per tonne sold are determined by subtracting depreciation and shipping and handling costs from cost of sales for the pulp segment divided by sales volume.

 

14



 

Stendal Project - Near Term Growth Driver

 

                  €1 billion “Greenfield” Project is the Largest Industrial Project Investment in Eastern Germany

      Qualifies for €274 Million of Grants

      Capacity of 552,000 t/a

      Production of Saleable Pulp Scheduled for Q3, 2004

 

                  Strong Cost Position (approx. €293/tonne*)

 

                  Proximity to Rosenthal Allows for Operating Synergies

 

                  Turnkey, Fixed-price EPC Contract (RWE)

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Sources of Funding:

 

(MM)

 

Equity

 

100

 

Grants

 

274

 

Project debt

 

637

 

Other

 

26

 

Total

 

1,037

 

 


* engineering cost estimate (steady state)

 

15



 

Stendal Project - On Budget and On Time

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Percent Complete at 12/31/03

 

Average Stage of Completion

 

92

%

Engineering

 

99.2

%

Procurement & Equipment

 

99.4

%

Delivery

 

 

 

Civil Works

 

92.8

%

Mechanical Erection

 

70

%

Start-up

 

Q3 2004

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

COMPETITIVE STRENGTHS

 



 

Low Cost NBSK Pulp Producer

 

DELIVERED CASH COST OF BSKP TO WESTERN EUROPE
ROSENTHAL vs. ALL MARKET PULP PRODUCERS

 

[CHART]

 

Source:
Jaakko Pöyry

 

18



 

World Class Assets

 

Industry Structure of NBSK Producers

 

[CHART]

 

Source:  Jaakko Pöyry, July 2002

 

                  Highly efficient – Low Production Costs

                  New facilities – Low Capital Requirements, High Runability

                  State of the Art Environmental Compliance

                  Energy – Net Producer

 

19



 

Transportation Advantage

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

20



 

Sales By Region 2003

 

[CHART]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Two-way Integrated Logistics Provides Cost Savings

 

21



 

Strong Fibre Supply

 

                                          High Quality Fibre Supply

                                  Rosenthal – Spruce

                                  Stendal – Pine

 

                                          Largest Consumer of Wood Chips in Germany

                                  Typically 1 Year Contracts

                                  Numerous Suppliers

 

                                          Low Historical Volatility in Wood Chip Pricing

                                  No Contracts Tied to Pulp Prices

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

22



 

Significant Leverage to Pulp Cycle

 

Impact on Operating Earnings

(effect of a $20/tonne change in pulp pricing per $100 invested)

 

[CHART]

 

As at March 31, 2004

Appendix 1 contains supporting data

 

Source: Company Reports

 

23



 

Long Term, Low Cost Debt Financing

 

                  Project Financings Benefit Our Equity Holders

                  Reduced Dilution

                  No Cash Sweep

                  Ring Fenced Structure

 

                  Government Guarantees, of 80% of Debt, is Maximized

                  Resulting in Low Cost Financing Structure

 

 

 

Rosenthal

 

 

 

Stendal

 

Size

 

€191.7m(1)

 

 

 

€668m(2)

 

Term

 

 

 

15 years

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

amortizing

 

 

 

Financing Cost

 

4.57%

 

 

 

5.26%

 

 

 

(cap of 6.8% to ‘07)

 

 

 

(est. fixed)

 

EBITDA(3) / Interest

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2003

 

 

 

1.7

x

 

 

2002

 

 

 

1.9

x

 

 

2001

 

 

 

2.2

x

 

 

 

Notes:

 


(1)  Amount outstanding as at December 31, 2003; Rosenthal had €25.1 million of restricted cash at such date

(2)  Initial permanent amounts available under the project facility

(3)  For discussion of EBITDA and limitations see last slide

 

24



 

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS & VALUATION

 



 

Historical Financial Performance

 

 

 

Years Ended December 31,

 

(€ millions)

 

2000

 

2001

 

2002

 

2003

 

Revenue

 

258.9

 

216.4

 

239.1

 

194.6

 

Operating EBITDA(1)

 

73.7

 

36.3

 

24.5

 

19.6

 

Operating Income (loss)

 

49.7

 

13.3

 

(1.1

)

(4.5

)

Net Income (loss)

 

32.0

 

(2.8

)

(6.3

)(2)

(3.6

)(2)

Net Cash From Operating Activities

 

43.4

 

30.4

 

40.4

 

31.4

 

 

Note:

 


(1)  For discussion of EBITDA and limitations see last two slides

(2)  Excluding items related to the Stendal project, net income would have been €12.8 million and €3.1 million, or €0.76 and € 0.18 per share for the years ended December 31, 2002 and December 31, 2003, respectively.

 

26



 

Competitive Highlights

 

                                          One of Lowest Cost NBSK Producers in Industry

 

                                          World Class Assets

 

                                          Ideal Geographic Location

                                  Unique End Market Dynamics

                                  Shipping Cost and Customer Service Advantage

                                  Strong Fibre Supply

 

                                          Solid Labor Relationships

 

                                          Significant Leverage to Pulp Cycle

 

                                          Hedging Activities Protect Against Interest Rate and Currency Fluctuations

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

27



 

[LOGO]

 

Mercer International Inc.

 

(Nasdaq:  MERCS)

(TSE:  MRI.U)

 



 

Appendix 1

Significant Leverage to Pulp Cycle

 

Impact on Operating Earnings

(effect of a $20/tonne change in pulp pricing per $100 invested)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pope &

 

 

 

Mercer

 

 

 

Aracruz

 

Canfor

 

Tembec

 

Talbot

 

SFK

 

current

 

2005e(1)

 

Capacity (000 t/a)

 

2,400

 

1,173

 

2,228

 

830

 

338

 

300

 

852

 

Shares Outstanding (mil.)

 

1,030.7

 

81.3

 

85.8

 

15.6

 

59.3

 

17.3

 

27.9

 

Leverage per share

 

$

0.05

 

$

0.29

 

$

0.52

 

$

1.06

 

$

0.11

 

$

0.35

 

$

0.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share price (2)

 

$

3.83

 

$

13.96

 

$

10.48

 

$

17.19

 

$

8.00

 

$

9.50

 

$

9.50

 

Leverage per $100

 

$

1.22

 

$

2.07

 

$

4.95

 

$

6.18

 

$

1.43

 

$

3.66

 

$

6.43

 

 

Notes:

 


(1)  Assumes a total of 10.645 million underlying shares issued through convertible debentures

(2)  US dollar prices as of March 31, 2004

 

Source: Company Reports

 

29



 

EBITDA

 

EBITDA as presented herein refers to Operating EBITDA, defined as income from operations plus depreciation and amortization.  Management uses Operating EBITDA as a benchmark measurement of its own operating results, and as a benchmark relative to its competitors.  Operating EBITDA is not a measure of financial performance under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States, and should not be considered as an alternative to net income (loss) or income (loss) from operations as a measure of performance, nor as an alternative to net cash from operating activities as a measure of liquidity.  Operating EBITDA has significant limitations as an analytical tool, and should not be considered in isolation, or as a substitute for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP.  Operating EBITDA as calculated by us may differ from Operating EBITDA as calculated by other companies.

 

30



 

EBITDA Reconciliation

 

 

 

For the Year Ended
December 31, 2003

 

For the Year Ended
December 31, 2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net loss, per income statement

 

(3,593

)

 (6,322

)

Add (less):

Minority interest

 

(5,647

)

(10,965

)

 

Income taxes (recovery)

 

3,172

 

(264

)

 

Interest expense

 

11,523

 

13,753

 

 

Investment Income

 

(1,653

)

(436

)

 

Derivative financial instruments

 

(16,168

)

6,679

 

 

Impairment of investments

 

7,825

 

 

 

Other non-operating income

 

 

(3,590

)

(Loss) income from operations

 

(4,541

)

(1,145

)

Add:  depreciation and amortization

 

24,105

 

25,614

 

Operating EBITDA

 

19,564

 

 24,469

 

 

31